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03/13/2010 - Burlington, VT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Marqus Blakely scored 24 points, grabbed 18 rebounds and handed out five assists, leading Vermont back to the NCAA Tournament with an 83-70 victory over Boston University in the championship game of the America East Tournament.
Nick Vier added 15 points and Maurice Joseph chipped in 13 for Vermont (25-9), which captured its fourth AEC championship and first since a three-year run from 2003-05. The Catamounts' last NCAA Tournament appearance was a memorable one in 2005, as they upset Syracuse in the first round before falling to Michigan State.
Corey Lowe scored 24 points to lead Boston University (19-13), which knocked off top-seeded Stony Brook last Sunday in the semifinals and was making its first visit to the AEC title game since a 56-55 loss to Vermont in 2003. The Terriers last won the tournament in 2002.
John Holland, BU's leading scorer at 19.3 points per game, made just 3-of-11 shots and finished with only nine points. Jake O'Brien contributed 17 points in defeat.
Vermont led by 11 at the break and a bucket to open the second half stretched the margin to 13, but BU scored six straight at one point to trim a 12-point deficit in half and drew within 54-53 with 11 minutes left on a three-pointer by Lowe.
The Terriers then had two possessions with a chance to take the lead and failed to convert either time, and Vermont capitalized with a layup by Evan Fjeld and a three-pointer by Joseph for a six-point edge with just under eight minutes to play.
Blakely hit a pair from the stripe to extend the lead to 61-53, but BU trimmed the margin back to four at 62-58 before going cold again. Vier and Garvey Young connected on three-pointers to fuel a 9-2 run that gave Vermont a 71-60 lead with 2 1/2 minutes remaining.
The Terriers never threatened again.
Vermont extended a three-point edge with a run of seven straight points midway through the opening half, as Vier hit a three-pointer and Blakely scored the next four for a 24-14 lead.
The Terriers got as close as six a couple of times before Vermont took a 42-31 advantage to the intermission after a Blakely bucket in the lane just before the buzzer.
Game Notes
Blakely, the conference's Player of the Year each of the two previous seasons, recorded his 17th double-double of the campaign...Fjeld, playing just days after his mother died of cancer, scored nine for Vermont...The Catamounts shot 57.8 percent overall and connected on 8-of-14 three-point tries, led by Vier's 4-for-4 effort from beyond the arc...The Terriers hit 38.2 percent from the field and made 10-of-23 from three-point range...BU has won five AEC tourney crowns, the most of any current member of the league. Northeastern, currently a member of the CAA, won seven AEC titles.
<< Houston steals NCAA bid with upset of UTEP in C-USA final
Tulsa, OK (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kelvin Lewis stepped up with 28 points and
drained six three-pointers, as the Houston Cougars claimed their first
Conference USA Tournament title and a return trip to the NCAA Tournament for
the fir
<< Rangers 2B Kinsler has sprained ankle
Surprise, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Texas Rangers second baseman Ian Kinsler will
be sidelined at least a week with a high right ankle sprain.
Kinsler suffered the injury in pre-game warmups on Friday and did not play in
the proceeding exhibit
<< Bobcats sign G Hughes; Wallace's MRI negative
CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) -The Charlotte Bobcats have signed veteran guard Larry Hughes to help with depth in the backcourt as they attempt to reach the playoffs for the first time.Meanwhile, an MRI on forward Gerald Wallace's left ankle on Saturday reve
<< Twins sign OF Span to five-year contract
Fort Myers, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Minnesota Twins announced the signing of
outfielder Denard Span to a five-year, $16.5 million contract on Saturday.
The deal also includes a $9 million club option for the 2015 season.
Span hit .311 i
Qualifying at Sao Paulo postponed >>
Sao Paulo, Brazil (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Poor track conditions forced Indy Racing
League officials to postpone qualifying for the IZOD IndyCar Series season-
opener on the streets of Sao Paulo until Sunday morning.
Officials made the decis
Temple crushes Rhode Island in A-10 semis >>
Atlantic City, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ryan Brooks scored 16 points as 17th-
ranked Temple cruised past Rhode Island, 57-44, in an Atlantic 10 semifinal.
Juan Fernandez added 14 points and dished out seven assists while Lavoy Allen
had n
Kentucky dominates Tennessee to reach SEC title game >>
Nashville, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - DeMarcus Cousins posted 19 points and 15
rebounds, as second-ranked Kentucky produced a chippy 74-45 rout of No. 15
Tennessee to advance to the SEC Tournament final.
Eric Bledsoe scored 17 points
Flyers rally to upend Chicago on Pronger's last-second score >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chris Pronger scored the game-winner with
2.1 seconds left in regulation as Philadelphia edged Chicago, 3-2, at Wachovia
Center.
With time winding down, Claude Giroux carried the puck down the right-w
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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It’s time to see how the biggest NFL free agent signings will perform for their news teams. Some will work out and could be the difference that makes a difference in the win column.
We look at the best off-season signings and if they should influence your NFL betting this season. Julius Peppers – Peppers was the biggest prize available on the 2010 NFL free agent market and the Chicago Bears opened the bank to bring his talents to the south side.
Peppers is explosive, he can get around blockers and cause quarterbacks to lose their minds. We all remember the classic Peppers game last year against the Vikings where he hounded Brett Favre into his worst game of the season. Peppers joining the Bears could be the reason Favre retired for good Tuesday morning. In addition to Peppers, the Bears added Chester Taylor to back up Matt Forte, Forte didn’t have the same intensity in 2009 compared to 2008 and bringing in Taylor will challenge Forte to bring it every game or he’ll risk losing carries to Taylor.
Betting on the Bears is a good option this season because of Julius Peppers and to a lesser extent Taylor. Antonio Bryant and Terrell Owens – The Cincinnati Bengals signed two former number one wide receivers to line up with Chad Ocho Cinco. Antonio Bryant had a huge season in 2008 catching 83 passes for over 1200 yards but regressed last season. Playing for the Tampa Bay Bucs last season was a large part of the regression, everyone was bad in TB last season.
Bryant should have a bounce back season if he can win the number two spot from Terrell Owens. If Bryant wins the number 2 WR spot, it will open up a completely new set of problems for the Bengals. If Owens is forced to the bench in favor of Bryant, his attitude will create trouble for Carson Palmer and head coach Marv Lewis. If Owens is the number two receiver, it means Bryant can’t live up to his past numbers and the Bengals are still limited in the passing game. NFL bettors should be wary of laying their money down on what could potentially be the biggest gong show in the league in 2010. 2010 football betting lines for this can be found at this top online sportsbook. Karlos Danby – The Miami Dolphins have a great running back tandem in Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown, a good young QB in Chad Henne and now the Bill Parcells regime is building a solid defense.
NFL bettors should be wary of laying their money down on what could potentially be the biggest gong show in the league in 2010. Karlos Danby – The Miami Dolphins have a great running back tandem in Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown, a good young QB in Chad Henne and now the Bill Parcells regime is building a solid defense. They signed away the Arizona Cardinals top linebacker Karlos Danby. In the past two seasons, Danby has totaled 228 tackles, 5 sacks, 3 interceptions and 3 forced fumbles. The Dolphins are the forgotten team of the AFC East with the second longest odds to win the division but with the addition of Karlos Danby and a trade for WR Brandon Marshall makes the Miami Dolphins legitimate contenders in the AFC East and in the NFL’s Eastern Conference.
The Dolphins will make NFL wagering fans a lot of money this season, get in early and enjoy the cash.
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