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09/10/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After the first Five-Star play of the season proved victorious (Arkansas State plus the points at Auburn), let's roll with another Sun Belt Conference squad, this time against a Big East foe.
Florida International hosts Rutgers just one year after dropping a 23-15 decision to the Scarlet Knights in New Jersey. The Golden Panthers covered the spread with 15 fourth-quarter points after trailing 23-0.
Rutgers scored just one offensive touchdown the entire contest while picking up 10 of its 23 points off FIU turnovers. In addition, Tom Savage completed only 11-of-28 passes for 185 yards and the Scarlet Knights' quarterback was also sacked four times.
Fast-forward to this season and Savage is right back where he was a year ago with a 10-of-19 performance for just 148 yards in last week's matchup with Norfolk State. The sophomore signal-caller was sacked three times by the Spartans, who trailed by only six points (6-0) at the half.
The Rutgers offensive line, which features three new starters, still needs a lot of work as the ground game was non-existent in the first half with just 84 yards against the Football Championship Subdivision school. And even though FIU is one of the lower-echelon Football Bowl Subdivision clubs, the Golden Panthers have fared well in this type of situation in the past.
The Panthers are a perfect 3-0 in their FBS existence when getting two touchdowns or more at home. They also have not lost a home game by more than 10 points since the 2007 campaign, and that includes matchups with Troy and South Florida.
FIU sports a new quarterback this season as well. Wesley Carroll, who transferred from Mississippi State last year, has a bevy of top-notch receivers at his disposal, led by T.Y. Hilton, who is finally healthy after an injury- plagued 2009 season.
In order for the Scarlet Knights to gain a convincing victory, Tom Savage and the rest of the offense must show marked improvement from the previous game. And when you consider the fact the quarterback sports a 7-6 touchdown/interception ratio in his last seven games, it will be extremely difficult for the Knights to run away from the Panthers, especially in Miami.
Take FIU plus the points.
The second Five-Star play of the week is a matchup of the Mountain West versus the WAC.
San Diego State travels to New Mexico State after knocking off Nicholls State, 47-0. Defeating the Colonels by 47 isn't saying much considering Air Force crushed them by 72 last season, and the Falcons then proceeded to lose to Minnesota the following week.
Given the fact the Aztecs are 3-21 SU on the road over the last four years it is shocking they are such heavy favorites in Las Cruces.
New Mexico State began last season winning three of its first six games before dropping its final seven. The Aggies have an underrated offensive line and a running back in Seth Smith that ripped off over 1,000 yards last year. They also bring in a new quarterback, and more importantly, a new offensive coordinator to help revive the passing game.
These two teams met last season with San Diego State coming out on top, 34-17, with 17 unanswered points in the fourth quarter. Since this will be New Mexico State's first game in 2010, the extra week of practice, along with the fact the game will be played at home, should help the Aggies to give the Aztecs all they can handle and then some.
Take New Mexico State plus the points.
THE LONE THREE-STAR PLAY
Texas A&M has been slowly but surely building back its program after hiring Mike Sherman as head coach prior to 2008, but the fruits of all the hard work will pay off in 2010. The Aggies opened the year with a victory over Stephen F. Austin and should easily make it 2-0 when they take on Louisiana Tech.
The Bulldogs are in the midst of a major change in offensive philosophy moving to the spread behind new head coach Sonny Dykes and offensive coordinator Tony Franklin. Unfortunately, the transition was not too smooth in week one when the offense picked up just 26 total yards in the entire second half against Grambling. In fact, the team also gained only nine yards in its final four first-half possessions.
Furthermore, the road wasn't too kind to Louisiana Tech last season with seven losses in seven games, so don't expect much improvement down in College Station where the Aggies went 4-1 ATS as favorites last season.
Take Texas A&M minus the points.
TWO-STAR PLAYS
Go with three favorites and two underdogs in week two. Take LSU (over Vanderbilt), Iowa (against Iowa State), and Kentucky (versus Western Kentucky), along with Kansas (plus the points against Georgia Tech), and Arkansas State (plus the points versus Louisiana).
ONE-STAR CHOICES
Three plays highlight the One-Star selections this week. Go with UTEP (plus the points at Houston), Oklahoma State (minus the points versus Troy), and BYU (over Air Force).
AFTER ONE WEEK
Yours truly went 6-3-2 last week for a 64% winning percentage. Breaking the totals down by the star system, the Five-Star plays are 1-0, the Three-Star selections are 2-0-1, the Two-Star picks are 2-1-1, and the One-Star choices are 1-2.
As a reminder, the Five-Star plays are those games where my key selections and my "Power Numbers" match. The Three-Star choices are my personal picks, while the Two-Star plays are the "power number" picks - games with at least a five- point differential between my line and the actual line. Finally, the One-Star plays are my personal secondary selections.
THIS WEEK'S JEFF FRANK "DIRTY DOZEN"
1) Ohio State, 101.5; 2) Boise State, 101; 3-T) Alabama and Oregon, 100.5; 5-T) Florida, Nebraska, Wisconsin and Iowa, 98; 9) Texas, 97.5; 10) Oklahoma, 97; 11) LSU, 96.5; 12) Georgia, 96
<< Villanova football considering a move to the Big East
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Villanova is reportedly evaluating the
prospect of moving up to the highest level of college football.
The Philadelphia Daily News reports that the reigning Football Championship
Subdivision champio
<< United braces for hostile Everton crowd
Liverpool, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Manchester United has had plenty of
success against Everton at Goodison Park over the years, but United manager
Sir Alex Ferguson never looks forward to making the trip.
"It's always a nightmar
<< Transfer Flowers cleared to play for Illinois State
Normal, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Defensive back Bo Flowers, an Illinois transfer,
was cleared by the NCAA to compete immediately for the Illinois State
Redbirds, the team's athletic department announced.
Flowers, a graduate student at Illinois
<< Playoff Pickups
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's playoff time in the world of fantasy
baseball and if your lineup needs a little boost because some of your veterans
haven't performed up to par, then you should be scouring the waiver wire.
Fortunate
South Carolina CB Culliver cleared >>
Columbia, SC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - South Carolina senior cornerback Chris
Culliver will be back on the field when the Gamecocks host 22nd-ranked Georgia
on Saturday.
Culliver, who earned Second-Team All-SEC honors as a junior safety
Celtic aims to continue perfect start against Hearts >>
Glasgow, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - When Celtic welcomes Hearts to Parkhead
on Saturday the Hoops will not only be trying for their fourth win in four
games to start the season, but also to keep manager Neil Lennon's record in
charge
Huber, Petrova reach U.S. Open doubles final >>
Flushing Meadows, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A second-seeded tandem of American
Liezel Huber and Russian Nadia Petrova posted a semifinal victory Friday at
the 2010 U.S. Open.
Huber-Petrova reached the women's doubles finale with a 6-3,
Nadal, Federer will play U.S. Open SF matches Saturday >>
Flushing Meadows, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - World No. 1 stalwart Rafael Nadal
and former top-ranked superstar Roger Federer are on a collision course to
meet in Sunday's men's final at the 2010 U.S. Open. The two tennis greats
have never met he
In any football or basketball game (the main sports that use point spreads) there are two teams playing against each other.
Those teams, though, are rarely exactly evenly matched – meaning that typically one team has a better chance than the other to win the game. If bettors were allowed to bet on who was simply going to win the game, smart ones would obviously bet on the better team (likely winning more than 50% of the time in the process).
If winning were that easy the Las Vegas and online sportsbooks would stop taking any bets! This is where the point spread comes in: the basic function of the point spread is to balance the likelihood of each team “winning” by adjusting the final score by the point spread. After this adjustment is made you get the Against The Spread result (ATS result for short).
Let’s look at Super Bowl XXXIX, New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles. Most people believed the defending champ Patriots to be the better team – so if betting were simply based upon which team would win the game, an uneven majority of people would have wagered on New England. But, by using the point spread, the bookmakers adjusted the terms of the bet, evening the proposition so about half the people believed the Pats to be the smart bet, while the other half considered Philly to be the smart bet.
New England Patriots -7 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The better team, called the Favorite, is expected to win the game and must “give” or “lay” points to the weaker team. The favorite is listed with a minus sign and the number of points they are favored by (e.g., New England -7)
In the case of our example, New England must not only win the game, but they must win by more than 7 points for Pats bettors to have a winning ATS result. An Eagles bettor wins his bet either if:
There was also the possibility that the final score could land exactly on the spread number (for example, the Pats winning 28-21 when -7), which is called a “push” or “no action” and a refund is then issued to bettors of both teams.
The same game with the same point spread can be considered from the weaker team’s perspective: The Underdog (Philly in the case of our example) is not expected to win the game and online football betting thus receives or “gets” points given by the stronger team. When a game is stated from the underdog’s perspective the team is listed with a plus sign and the number of points they are underdogs by:
Philadelphia Eagles +7 vs. New England Patriots
Keep in mind that Philadelphia +7 and New England -7 is the same point spread on the same game, simply stated differently. The first is from the underdog’s perspective; the later is from the favorite’s.
Not a must, but for some a mathematical approach is insightful. You can determine the ATS winner by either:
Let’s look at the actual result of Super Bowl XXXIX: New England 24 Philadelphia 21
The favorite, New England, won the game but not by more than the point spread they were favored by (7), so the ATS result was a LOSS for Pats bettors.
Looking at it from the underdog’s perspective, Philly did not win the game, but they lost by less than the point spread (7), so the ATS result was a WIN for Eagle bettors.
Mathematically considered, 24 for the favorite Pats minus 7 equals 17, which is less than the 20 the Eagles scored, so the underdog Eagles win the ATS result (or you could figure 20 plus 7 equals 27 for the Eagles, which is more than 24 for the Pats).
Emily’s boyfriend understood the point spread and wagered $100 on the Eagles at +7. The Eagles may not have gotten a Super Bowl ring, but since they won the ATS result Emily’s boyfriend cashed his bet – giving him money to take her out to a nice dinner.
And now hopefully you understand how to read point spreads, putting you one step closer to joining the fun of sports betting.
To visit this internet sportsbook go to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting and World Series odds.
The NFL preseason is approaching. Time for players, coaches and teams to turn over a new leaf. General managers have hired some new coaches, while coaches have added some offensive and defensive assistants to try and improve things. Here’s a look at some changes to look for in the preseason.
New York Jets: The Jets were one of the surprise teams in the NFL last season, making the playoffs under hard-driving first-year coach Eric Mangini. Mangini rebuilt the offensive line with rookies D'Brickashaw Ferguson (the No. 4 pick in the 2007 Draft) and Ohio State center (the 29th pick in the first round). This season he upgraded the defense with rookie linebacker David Harris (Michigan) while the secondary picked up a much needed top-notch corner in Pitt CB Darrelle Revis (No. 14 overall).
The Jets have added balance to the offense for QB Chad Pennington with RB Thomas Jones, essentially stolen from the Bears. He will upgrade a New York ground game that was 20th in rushing with a weak 3.5 yards per carry. They have their first true feature back since Curtis Martin. Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer prefers ball control, like his father Marty. In preseason, behind Pennington you’ll see second-year QB Kellen Clemens and mobile newcomer QB Marques Tuiasosopo.
Jacksonville Jaguars: The heat is on Jack Del Rio in Jacksonville as the Jaguars flopped last season despite a ton of talent. Keep in mind that under Del Rio the Jaguars have been outstanding in preseason with a 12-4 SU, 11-5 ATS August mark. online football betting Their defense is loaded, it’s the offense that has been stuck in first gear the last few years.
Enter a new offensive coordinator in Dirk Koetter, the former Boise State and Arizona State pass-happy coach. He will try and upgrade a passing game that ranked 24th last season. Del Rio has criticized wide receivers and Matt Jones this summer, both of whom have battled injuries. It will be interesting to watch the “new” Jaguars passing game in preseason.
Arizona Cardinals: Word out of Arizona is that the players like new coach Ken Whisenhunt, who was the Steelers offensive coordinator last year. We think of Arizona as all-passing because their running game has been awful of late because of a poor offensive line. However, keep an eye on the running game in preseason as they’ve made a lot of changes.
The new coach brings in Russ Grimm to coach the offensive line (Grimm did a marvelous job building the Steelers line). They took Penn State OT Levi Jones in the first round and signed two offensive linemen, Mike Gandy and Al Johnson, to provide depth. Reggie Wells was moved from right tackle to left guard and they want more speed out of the offensive line for pulling and traps, a Pittsburgh staple under Bill Cowher.
Atlanta Falcons: While all the attention has been focused on QB Mike Vick’s off-field problems, new coach Bobby Petrino is revamping the Falcons from an all-running team to a more balanced one. Petrino likes the experience of backup QB Joey Harrington and he has veteran backup Chris Redman, who used to play for Petrino at Louisville and knows his offenses better than anyone. Petrino wants Vick to be more of a pocket passer.
The addition of FB Ovie Mughelli is a sign Petrino wants a power rushing attack behind a physical fullback and newcomer WR Joe Horn should upgrade what was a below average wideout corps. Petrino is changing their old zone-blocking scheme to a more traditional in-line blocking scheme and the offensive line is bigger. Rookie DE Jamaal Anderson was grabbed in the first round and the secondary got younger with former Auburn cornerback David Irons, who the Falcons think was a steal as a sixth-round pick.
Cleveland Browns: The 2007 Browns look like a double-edged sword. There was the excitement of the offseason, trading for RB Jamel Lewis, upgrading the offensive line with Wisconsin’s Joe Thomas (the No. 2 pick in the draft) and free agent LG Eric Steinbach, then trading for Notre Dame QB Brady Quinn when he fell to No. 22. GM Phil Savage and head coach Romeo Crennel feel they have a talented, balanced offense with these new pieces, plus TE >Kellen Winslow and WR Braylon Edwards.
However, were these moves made in desperation? And were they foolish ones? The Browns gave up their 2008 first-round pick for Quinn and we all know QBs take time to develop. And even first-round QBs can be busts (Joey Harrington, Akili Smith). We also don’t know if the offensive line is that much improved (31st in rushing in 2007) and they did nothing to improve a defense that was awful against the run (142 yds pg allowed).
The Browns have a new offensive coordinator in Rob Chudzinski. This is a young offense and Quinn looked tentative, indecisive and inaccurate early in camp. Crennel will play Charlie Frye, Quinn and Derek Anderson in preseason. And there is a mixed bag for rookie QBs receiving significant starts: Tim Couch (14), Kerry Collins (13), Ben Roethlisberger (13), Vince Young (13), Joey Harrington (12), Matt Leinart (11) and Kyle Boller (nine). While all the focus will be on the Browns new-look offense, I’m more concerned with the defense.
Carolina Panthers: Coach Jon Fox loves the ground game, but Carolina has made some interesting changes for 2007. Fox fired offensive coordinator Dan Henning and brings in Jeff Davidson to run the offense. Davidson has brought in zone-blocking schemes to the Panther offense, a dramatic change for a system that's been built around a power-running style.
In zone-blocking, offensive linemen are responsible for blocking any defender who appears in their zone, instead of focusing on one defender. The Broncos and Falcons have had success with the system, which features smaller, more athletic offensive linemen and can create running lanes on the inside and outside. Keep an eye in preseason on how Carolina adjusts as it will take time to learn the system. Fox has been one of the top coaches in preseason, with a 15-5 SU, 12-7-1 ATS August record.
Dallas Cowboys: WR Terrell Owens is still here, but QB Drew Bledsoe and Bill Parcells are gone. New head coach Wade Phillips takes over, replacing Parcells. He ran the Chargers defense last season. Phillips was chosen by teary-eyed owner Jerry Jones partly because he is one of the best 3-4 coaches in football and the Cowboys have loaded up on players for that scheme.
Remember that Phillips was blitz-happy with the Chargers last season and early reports out of the Dallas camp have mentioned how the Cowboys have been blitzing a lot, a departure from Parcells. The theme of the 2007 Dallas defense appears to be one of attack.
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