Big Ten brawl pits Buckeyes against Boilermakers

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/28/2009 - West Lafayette, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 16th-ranked Purdue Boilermakers will try to avenge an earlier loss to the Ohio State Buckeyes, as the two Big Ten programs clash at Mackey Arena today.

Purdue leads the all-time series with OSU, 79-74, including 52-23 in West Lafayette, but the Buckeyes captured an 80-72 overtime victory in the first meeting of the season on February 3rd. That victory was part a four-game win streak for OSU that was quickly followed with three consecutive losses. The Buckeyes though, put an end to that slide on Tuesday, notching a 73-59 victory over a tough Penn State club. It was a much needed win for OSU, which strengthened its NCAA Tournament resume and now stands at 18-8 overall.

As for Purdue, it took to the road on Thursday and was upset at Michigan, 87-78. The loss not only put an end to the team's four-game win streak, but it also hurt the program's Big Ten title chances. The Boilermakers are now two games behind Michigan State for the top spot, with only three outings left in the regular season.

The Buckeyes made good on 52.0 percent of their chances from the floor and 10- of-22 from three-point land, as they pulled away from Penn State on Tuesday. OSU also went 11-of-14 at the foul line, while holding a 34-25 advantage on the glass. Jeremie Simmons tallied 14 points on 4-of-7 three-pointers to lead the way, and B.J. Mullens and P.J. Hill each scored 13 points. Evan Turner was limited to only six points, but he did have eight assists and six boards. The versatile Turner means so much to the Buckeyes, as he leads them in scoring (16.7 ppg), rebounding (7.3 rpg), assists (3.7 apg) and steals (47) on the season. William Buford follows at 11.5 ppg, and Jon Diebler trails with 11.4 ppg on the strength of 42.7 percent shooting from long range.

The Boilermakers were down by just three points midway through the second half before Michigan ripped off a 19-6 run to come away with the upset victory on Thursday. Purdue, which is holding opponents to a mere 38.4 percent shooting from the floor and 59.0 ppg on the season, allowed Michigan to make 63.0 percent of its field goal attempts en route to 87 points. Robbie Hummel paced the team in the setback with 24 points and six boards, while E'Twaun Moore notched 18 points. Moore currently leads the team in scoring at 14.1 ppg and he is also collecting 4.8 rpg. JaJuan Johnson adds 13.3 ppg and 6.0 rpg to the lineup, while Hummel logs 12.4 ppg and a team-high 6.8 rpg.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

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